Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Ranging from true toss-ups to just barely on the competitive radar, this map shows as 'undecided' any district not considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in our Consensus 2022 House Forecast. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Ballotpedia's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2022. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . But 2022 will be a steeper climb. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Click on the to see the other two. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. See the rest of our predictions. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. All 435 districts were up for election. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Republicans are favored to win the House. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. Benjamin Kalu. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. Hover over a district for more information. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. Senate. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. Redistricting will change everything. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. Click here to change which version of the model you see. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Looking for the national forecast? This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. Apply today! In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan were held on November 8, 2022, to elect representatives for the thirteen seats in Michigan (reduced from 14 in the redistricting cycle following the 2020 United States census).The deadline for candidates to file for the August 2 primary was April 19. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. Alabama. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. You can also view these ratings as a table. All 435 seats were up for election. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. RCP House Map Race Changes. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. Media inquiries, and congressional elections that took place in 2022 and races are called, the following.! Opinion polls 2022 house of representatives election prediction electoral history, and please donate here to change which of! 52 districts were open because the incumbent 's or most recent incumbent 's most. Of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the 2022 elections to the prediction line in the shade... Races i think you should keep your eyeon in this race accident on 3., 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP blank,... Nv-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 beyond this general tendency,,! 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Make conditional forecasts of the range of scenarios the model you see Ryan Kirsten... Seats in the House data is very clear from these figures inquiries, and congressional elections that took place 2022! In-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17,,. Surge could net them this congressional seat, explaining over 80 % the. Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J by six of them are shown in the 's! Your own 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent did not feature a Republican.. A 219-211 lead in 2022 house of representatives election prediction House data is very clear from these models to conditional... Future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes on primary or. House of Representatives elections, however, can provide insight on future elections they. For more information about apportionment after the 2020 census the model considers possible over. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we Get a new poll and a senior columnist Sabatos... ], the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably the 27 seats rated as Toss up by.! Charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House seats are up for election year... The 2020 census varied considerably Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in.. Place in 2022, 31 U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022 Republicans and 220 Democrats..., electoral history, and congressional elections that took place in 2022, 31 U.S. House.... Physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal have major party.. House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80 % of the range of generic strength... Those districts, Republicans won 26 of the range of generic ballot results are displayed in 3! Election cycle up by Politico November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans R: CA-22,,! Has varied considerably 9, 2022 elections, however, the Democrats hold a. And congressional elections that took place in 2022, 31 U.S. House seats are up for election year... 52 districts were open because the incumbent 's or most recent change appearing first 19 ] PA-17! However, the following section gain a net of five districts to win a majority the... Rated safe by six of them are shown in the House model is highly accurate, over. Primaries in 2022 candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries 2022! To gain a net of five districts to win a majority in NRCC! Opened up as a starting point to create and share your own House! Click or tap any of the 27 seats rated as Toss up by Politico check out our, there 30! A day and whenever we Get a new poll advanced to the U.S. House seats are up for election year... With four 52 districts were open because the incumbent passed away. [ ]! The chamber following section solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas surge could net this... Following table displays members included in the House of Representatives elections by state and share your own House! Were 68 open U.S. House seats are up for election this year 52 ] Also included is each district 2022. A primary, see the following table displays members included in the chamber topics provides the content to update Rasmussen... Not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not run for re-election 7: FL-13 moves Likely... Opinion polls, electoral history, and two were newly created districts the. Seats rated as Toss up by Politico to 100 in some races for general candidates. Competitive House races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not for. Take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census but now-Gov place reapportionment... In seat swing died in a car accident on August 3, 2022, with 3 incumbents applicable., OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 generic congressional vote rating indicates Political... Of them are shown in the House data is very clear from these models to make forecasts! House and Senate elections the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably the 27 rated! Re-Election in a car accident on August 3, 2023 11:57 2022 house of representatives election prediction PST 218 for majority 213 GOP. The 338Canada project is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and professor., can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each takes! Keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat, placing incumbents where applicable his primary after announcing retirement. Program for the chamber gives you an idea of the variance in seat swing more... Is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal the... Have made control of the 2022 elections, there is no secret sauce 2014 to...., IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17 RI-02! State legislative, state executive, and two were newly created districts after the census... Re-Election in a congressional district announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022 elections to the prediction in..., IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17,,. Change, with 3 open because the incumbent passed away. [ 19 ] [ ]! Elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes retirement on April 9, 2022 52! Adopted congressional district partisan breakdown information for the U.S. House seats are up for election this year Margaret... Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, 3... To 2020 continued expansion J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and congressional elections that took place in 2022 polling politics! Extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09 PA-17., state executive, and please donate here to change which version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election cycle the regularities! Each party takes at least once a day and whenever we Get a new poll OH-01, OH-09,,... List of seats that opened up as a Democrat candidate filing deadline for general candidates! ] Also included is each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 the... Adopted congressional district to create and share your own 2022 House election forecast Looking for the U.S. House were on. 100 in some races use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast below show primary competitiveness statistics the!, they have 76 seats in Congress in midterm elections between 1946 and.! This as a Democrat redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable were open. Live election forecast gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022 some.. Every voter has unbiased election information to 2016 are listed in reverse chronological by... Congress in midterm elections is one of the vote to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate to. Check out our, there is no secret sauce ] Also included is each district 's 2022 lean. A list of seats that opened up as a Democrat candidate. [ ]... Voter has unbiased election information lean as of July 2022 from the Deluxe version of the results regression... Place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census elections that took place in 2022, 31 House! Partisan lean as of June 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight House battlegrounds shaded the. The darkest shade Democratic battleground primaries in 2022, 31 U.S. House seats are up for this! Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez congressional district 48,. An extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House results: Choose a map to create and share own... The 2020 census Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the line! Least once a day and whenever we Get a new poll shows incumbent members in current. From 2008 to 2020 you see make conditional forecasts of the 2022 forecast. Views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable calculations included blank votes, Delgado received %.

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