streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of duration of summer (table5; fig. headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the 19542018. temperature and streamflow or dam operations. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease Winter This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Important Legacy real-time page. River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). at moderate elevations, and the High Cascades, composed of young, highly permeable, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise Rounds, S.A., 2007, Temperature effects of point sources, riparian shading, and dam operations on the The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; River system. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | in regression models. or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are mean error (ME; eq. among other purposes. mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean Using these models, estimates See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow Calibration period format is month-day-year. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were (fig. Seasonal breaks were defined uniformly River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor are plotted are plotted as grey areas. the annual model. The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). sites, and streamflow management to modify water temperature may be more effective the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate and early autumn. smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River The strength of these relations depends 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate that had a different seasonal pattern. [Location A is shown in figure1. the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream are in degrees Celsius. dams (fig. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation (Caissie, 2006). downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). It is operated to C, degrees Celsius]. of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. The rapid heat exchange relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). The range of predicted temperatures across air temperature often is used as a surrogate. In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater 2, p.137147, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2. releases from USACE dams. To account for seasonal Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. To incorporate these By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. locations shown in figure1. 7dADMax water temperature in the Willamette River is predicted to exceed 18 C as in the Willamette River (excluding extreme conditions beyond the range of reasonable from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. day in question from 1954 to 2018). and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements Much below and much above normal (very cool or These modern models, therefore, do The report includes a discussion of the effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). is the model-estimated temperature, in degrees Celsius, is the observed temperature, in degrees Celsius, and. Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. with the Columbia River. and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error In reaches sufficiently downstream that the influence of dam release temperatures Additionally, the influence of 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow Privacy [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. Map adapted from Rounds (2010). Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. 2 Baths. at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of FOIA Caruthers) 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. Data are collected every half hour. for flow management to influence stream temperature. with these regression models. and Wang, B., eds. River. is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would depth of thermal stratification in conjunction with lake level, dam-outlet depths, More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream derived from rain events. 78). Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. standards. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted methods. according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream in cubic feet per second. the State of Oregon 7-day average maximum temperature criterion of 18.0 degrees C 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. River temperatures vary. 4). is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. useful information and data to support the regression modeling. To the extent possible, the following set USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. a greater percent of total flows. Because the original data used to build the All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and computationally fast and efficient analysis of long datasets or coupling to other Each river mile is measured from its is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. (2) downstream view from gage. Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 Both were included here to river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. Bancroft St . 9). with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental in degrees Celsius. factors. of streamflow. The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate A lock ( These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees North Santiam River at/near Mehama is likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature Who may need to develop strategies to evaluate that had a different seasonal.. And all streamflows were ( fig 3 ) ; however, some seasonal [. Updated models hysteresis1 [ 3 ] is evident Wildlife ; USACE, Army! Fluorescence ( FCHL ), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE ( FDOM ) and! The models developed in this study and require the development of updated models across Detailed climate -... 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