If you just look at the stock prices, things dont look bad stocks continue to rise. Norway's foremost claims manager | Norges fremste klagebehandler. However, we need to be cautious not to conclude anything with regard to the statistical significance of this result, because there are also negative data points within the graph. When you approach the end, you will see how things correspond to the world today. Your email address will not be published. Global recession.2021-2022 Shmita Year ??? but during the seventh year the land shall have a sabbath rest, a sabbath to the Lord; you shall not sow your field nor prune your vineyard. Therefore, the poor would never be poor forever and the rich would not continually devour the property of the poor. The last one in 2007-8, triggered by the bursting of a US housing price bubble and the explosion of sub-prime mortgage lending caused the most catastrophic world recession in 75 years. Im not the first analyst using time cycles to predict movements in the financial markets. However, the historical hit rates arent high enough to justify running for cover if you have no other fundamental stock-market worries. The stock market follows and amplifies the cycle. We are in the middle of an economic crisis, but things dont actually look to bad on the surface. The last sabbath year was in 2014-2015 and the last yubilee-year was in 1972-1973. According to research funded by the best trading app around - it saw stock markets around the world collapse, wiping out trillions of dollars from Wall Street to Shanghai. Your email address will not be published. Cahns book basically engages in cherry-picking.. This year Sukkot has an added dimension, as it falls during the seventh year of our agricultural cycle, Shmita. Maybe remove the Ukrainian flag from the profile picture, as its been there for a while. 1916 1917: Stock market drop 40% and many European countries are suffering an economic collapse. Shmita, Cahan writes is, about taking a break from the madcap pursuit of wealth and acknowledging that it's all from God. Jonathan Cahn in his book The Mystery of the Shemitah maps out a number of major economic disturbances to recent Shemitah years; however, he leaves out any discussion of Shemitahs that didnt correlate to stock market downturns and he also leaves out downturns that didnt correlate to any Shemitah years. The goal of the Shmita Project is to significantly raise awareness of the concept of shmita in Jewish tradition, both as a way to learn about how extraordinary and rich Jewish tradition is, and to animate conversation and change in the world, based on the values and teachings of shmita and focus on environmental sustainability, rest and overwork, Understanding that I am trying to correlate a Christian calendar with the Jewish Calendar, here are the past Shmita years where data (from Robert Shiller) are available: As one can see, some of the great crashes in American history occurred during these Shmita years, but are these significant? Jubilee is based on letting the land rest every 7th year, known as the Shmita year. However, the complete statistical analysis indicates that the correlation is poor at best. As of Nov. 29, the S&P 500 is down a more modest 16.75%, but still. You may wonder how Israel could ever eliminate a year of planting and not run out of food, because the effect of the Shemitah would actually result in at least a 1.5-year interim between harvests. Note: Unlike the seeds that are used for crops today, which have been engineered to grow once and the plant that sprouts produces no viable seeds so that farmers have to repeatedly buy more seed every planting season, the seeds that the Israelis used resulted in completely viable plants which produced vital seeds. All of these downturns actually occurred during the Shemitah year or within a few months thereafter (i.e., in its wake). This served to reinforce their reliance on God and decrease their reliance on their own initiative, which is exactly what the Lord wanted to happen. The impact of the Bayer AG shares fell on Tuesday after the company said fourth-quarter net profit fell, noting that it had a higher number of lawsuits related to . A Shabbat of years A Shmita Year happens every seventh year. For the non-Shmita years, the average return is 9.0% (16.5%), but for the Shmita years, it is an average loss of -2.4% (22.7). Been looking for this thread. Yet the charts suggest that, although we are desperate to deny it, such a rhythm is obstinately embedded in human economic life. The next Shemitah year will start in September of 2021. If we continue the upwards trend entering 2021, approaching September we should pay attention. Many would say that this is because it cant. The next year of the Shemitah starts on September 7th, 2021, and ends on September 25, 2022. Note: When using this graph, be careful in interpreting the magnitude of ups and downs in the market over time, because the y-axis is plotted on a logarithmic scale; therefore, relative point changes in the Dow Jones Average are compressed toward the upper right hand side of the graph relative to the lower left hand side (due to the market having higher values in later years). The last time we have seen a Shemitah year was in the year 2014-2015. The beginning of the Jubilee year would be marked by the sounding of a rams horn on the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur). So, although we are not seeing any crash, we do see weakness in the financial markets. Masterclass Teach The Art Of Magic Penn e Teller. The comparison of the volatility of Reppond Investments, Inc.s strategies to the volatility of any stock market index is for illustrative purposes only. Is there a principle that has been functioning for decades and perhaps even for centuries, which affects the global political and economic systems and causes periodic recessions or depressions? Thus, there appears to be a Shemitah Effect that manifests itself as negative economic pressure upon the economy of the United States, and since the U.S. economy typically reflects what is happening in the world, this effect likely occurs worldwide as well. 2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. 3 This type of downward pressure on the global financial system may also cause the rise and fall of empires and countries, as economic upheavals often cause major political power shifts. This was a land and that which was built up was wiped away. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the Lords remission has been proclaimed.. It turns out that its lacking entire categories pertinent to stock market action: Weve reminded dejected readers throughout 2022 that this year was statistically cursed from the onset. 1916-1917 Year of Shemitah (*Super Shemitah Year) - Stock market drops 40%. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. After all, its just a day like any other day. This is what he wrote in Exodus: You shall sow your land for six years and gather in its yield, but on the seventh year you shall let it rest and lie fallow, so that the needy of your people may eat; and whatever they leave the beast of the field may eat. A mini-recession built into their economic system every seven years which assured that there would be no financial bubbles or the subsequent severe crashes, which often resulted from them. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. ". Most people are familiar with the concept of the weekly Sabbath, which was given by God for man to rest one day out of every seven days, just as the Lord rested on the seventh day after the six days of creation (note: in the original language of Genesis relative to the creation, days = eons). document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Phi network most valuable crypto in the world, Ukraine zelenskyy virtual into law legalizing. Exodus 23:11. As a student of the Bible and also as a scientist by training, I have to conclude that the statistical analysis of all the data indicates that the effect is not apparent. towers fell. How come his sensationalist shmita screed up there on the best-seller shelves and not my scrupulously researched (yet eminently readable) effort? Greed and the desire for money caused many in Israel to ignore the Shemitah and the Jubilee. The data therefore indicates that throughout this period of over a century in length, 11 Shemitahs out of 17 show a definite Shemitah Effect relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Numerologists will be disappointed to learn that longer-term time cycles dont line up for a prosperous 2022 for stocks. Of course the stock exchanges are experiencing problems, but most of the newly printed money end up in the exchanges, thus preventing the logical drop. If this force really exists, it might actually impact the valuation of stock markets, investments, and currencies on a recurring basis. Theres been a major financial disruption in seven of the eight Shmita years dating back to 1966: Our institutional research publication Perception for the Professional is sought after by the top institutional managers in the industry. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. An investor cannot invest directly in these. Fortunately, this is a simple process, as Israel has been faithfully tracking the Shemitah time cycles (although not strictly observing the Mosaic Law) from the time that the Temple was destroyed in 70 AD. The Largest Percent Changes in the Dow Jones industrial Average, RankDateCloseNet Change% ChangeShemitah Years or Wake11987-10-191738.74508.0022.6121929-10-28260.6438.3312.82 31899-12-1858.277.9411.99 41929-10-29230.0730.5711.73 51929-11-06232.1325.559.92 61932-08-1263.115.798.40 71907-03-1476.236.898.29 81987-10-261793.93156.838.0492008-10-158577.91733.087.87101933-07-2188.717.557.84 111937-10-18125.7310.577.75122008-12-018149.09679.957.70132008-10-098579.19678.917.33141917-02-0188.526.917.24151997-10-277161.15554.267.18 161932-10-0566.075.097.15 172001-09-178920.7684.817.13181931-09-24107.798.207.07191933-07-2096.267.327.07 202008-09-2910365.45777.686.98. Therefore, working backward from the Shemitah of 2014-2015, the following years can be calculated to be Shemitahs simply subtracting 7 from each year. The World Trade Centre was conceived in the Shmita of 1945, begun in the Shmita of However, Reppond Investments, Inc. makes no representations or guarantees with respect to the accuracy or completeness of that type of data.Past performance is not indicative of future results. You shall thus consecrate the fiftieth year and proclaim a release through the land to all its inhabitants. Since the majority of Shemitahs end up occurring during an economic downturn, it is easy to get the impression that the Shemitah Effect is the cause. 150 South Fifth Street, Suite 1700Minneapolis, MN 55402, 2023 Time Cycles: Two Outta Three Aint Bad. The indicator is included in the cryptocurrency trading course. But since then, the popular index is down a little . This year is a different story. 1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash. Lets look at this effect in more detail by considering more extensive data sets. Feb. 28, 2023 at 3:56 a.m. You shall eat its crops out of the field. hewn stones. Another way of analyzing the Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to look at the 20 largest point drops in the stock market during single day crashes. The Lord promised that he would bless Israel if they followed his ways, and the weekly Sabbath and the seventh-year Shemitah would pose no problems, but be a great blessing. Greed and bad economic practices often lead to economic busts that have nothing to do with the Shemitah Effect or its timing. In proportion to the extent of the years you shall increase its price, and in proportion to the fewness of the years you shall diminish its price, for it is a number of crops he is selling to you. This part of the Shemitah thus provided a cooling off period for Israels economy. But a combo of time cycles suggests a major low is due any time. You know, a lot of people are searching around for this info, you can help them greatly. Major important crashes in the stock market are correlated with the Shemitah years. As can be seen, there are some Shemitah years that actually do correlate well to downturns in the stock market; particularly, these are represented by the years 1902-1903, 1909-1910, 1916-1917, 1930-1931, 1937-1938 (at its start), 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015. There can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies devised or undertaken by Reppond Investments, Inc.) will be profitable for a clients or prospective clients portfolio. Six years you shall sow your field, and six years you shall prune your vineyard and gather in its crop. Not planting nor harvesting any crops so the soil can recover from 6 years of growing and harvesting. Again, the Shemitah Effect appears to be real, but it cannot be used as an absolute predictor of future unemployment levels. A detail, but relevant right now, as the US is about to erase student debt. Time Cycles Say Therell Be Better Times Than 2022, A Religious Calendar Calls For A 2022 (Market) Sabbatical, Soft Landing Or Recession? How can the Torahs idealistic instruction to cease agricultural labor for one year every seven apply to a 24/7 post-industrial reality? This means, unfortunately that slumps and depressions are exaggerated in degree. This universal Shemitah Effect would presumably occur even if the nations did not follow the Mosaic principles of this law. And the deeper the illusions, the worse is the reckoning when it comes. Ben Reppond(406) 871-3321ben@reppondinvestments.comLearn how we manage money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4IdPxtjBYo\u0026t=3220sInstagram: @benreppondBloomberg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hA3IkauON4CNBC Joe Kernanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlmLyfx5tcECNBC Scott Wapnerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1cGFjXXtYJonathan CahnThe Mystery of the Shemitahhttps://www.amazon.com/Mystery-Shemitah-Updated-000-Year-Old-Future/dp/1629994707Produced By http://www.thepyrostudios.comDISCLOSURESThis presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. People are blessed with perfect economic information and make their decisions accordingly. With that assertion, it is imperative to learn about the Shemitah Effect as we study End Times prophecy. U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam The aftereffects of a Shemitah year should continue to be felt during the first year of the next Shemitah cycle, because the debt release occurs on the last day of the year. ", "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower whose top is in the heavens; let us make a The Shmita year starts every 7th year on Elul 29 on the Biblical Calendar on the Feast of Trumpets. Poor people are often disregarded and thus remain poor, while the wealthy continually try to get more wealth and power while ignoring the aftereffects. Also, on the seventh year, all debts were to be forgiven (Deuteronomy 15:1-11). Cahn subsequently went on to publish a second book in 2014 that was exclusively related to the Shemitah Effect, entitled The Mystery of the Shemitah. Also, the value of property or farm land being sold was to be prorated relative to the time left before the next Year of Jubilee. The Shemitah Effect also affected any person associated with agriculture, including people who made their living from working on farms, selling food, or providing equipment or services to farmers. So I was surprised to see, sitting right there on the Hudson best-seller shelves, a volume with the word Shmita screaming off the cover in raised gold letters. The current global economic system seeks to have continual growth with no room for Sabbath rests or Shemitahs. Whether you believe that the war is the source of all current problems or not, have a look at the table below. The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. One method of looking at a potential Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to attempt to correlate the major point drops or percent changes in the stock market to a Shemitah year or its wake. The Significant of the Shemitah Cycle In his book, Rabbi Jonathan writes all peoples and nations should follow this cycle as those who do not, will face God's judgment. In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the Lehman brothers which led to the housing market crash and recession. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable. Here is a chart comparing all of the years: It is hard to understand what to do with this data. This exact correlation is very interesting and I do see reasons to believe that this 7-year cycle has impact on mass human behavior which is influencing the financial markets. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Key Facts of the Shmita Year The next Shmita The next Shmita (Sabbatical) Year begins on September 6th, 2021 and ends on September 26th, 2022. THE STOCK MARKET WILL CRASH! Therefore, Moses told the nation of Israel that six days out of every week they should labor and work, but on the seventh day they should rest from all their labors and do no work: For six days work may be done, but on the seventh day there is a sabbath of complete rest, a holy convocation. Press J to jump to the feed. 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. More importantly, its a midterm election year, traditionally the weakest of the four-year cycle. and lie still." The charts can span most of the Twentieth Century and, as of this writing, up to October 2015 in this century. In the following table, the 20 largest negative percent changes are shown for the Dow Jones Average since the beginning of the last century, and they are either positively or negatively correlated to a Shemitah event. To the nation that upholds the ways of God it comes as a blessing. In 2012, the Christian Rabbi Jonathan Cahn published a book entitled The Harbinger: The Ancient Mystery That Holds the Secret of Americas Future (Frontline Pub Inc). modern history. All during this one Shmita year. His Hidden Secrets of Money is a great input to your own thought process. then I will so order My blessing for you in the sixth year that it will bring forth the crop for three years. The observance of the Shemitah obviously took faith in God to provide enough food during the previous six years to survive the seventh year with no additional planting. In his analysis, he looked at a broader picture of economic indicators and whether the Shemitah years have had any significant impact on them. Weve gotten our money back, thanks to the complaints help we got!Eternally grateful!!! The next Shemitah year will start in September of 2021. 1916-1917 - 40% of the US stock market value wiped out. a 40,000 pound "hewn" foundation stone. The beginning of American to rise to world power. The special Sabbath that occurs once every seven years became known as the Shemitah. The Shemitah is thus a radical concept that has no parallel among the nations and economic systems of the world. The economy of the world thus feeds on greed, power, and debt, and many people, companies, and countries couldnt function at their current standard of living without these vices. Feel free to contact me if you have questions or comments. The lack of an absolute correlation to stock market crashes shouldnt come as a surprise, however. The Shmita (judgment) and America converged on September 11, 2001 when the However, there is also a second calendar year, the Jewish ecclesiastical calendar, which begins on the first day of Nisan (originally called Aviv), which occurs in the spring, and then ends on Adar 29. If the nation followed God in the Shemitah and Jubilee, they would be prosperous and at rest in their land; however, if the nation turned away from God and didnt follow these laws, they would suffer the effects of the Shemitah as a judgment and with extremely negative consequences. Another important release that would take place at the end of every Shemitah year was described by the prophet Jeremiah. Could we use policy instruments, such as a gradual tightening of monetary policy starting in the sixth year after the previous slump to prevent the next collapse being as devastating (or even more so) than the last one? In reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is highly variable and typically will have many increases and decreases over such a long period of time. Please invest accordingly. These opportunistic crops would continue to sprout during a Shemitah year and supply additional food for anyone wanting to eat it. Shmita years are behind the rise and fall of America. Germany, Russia, Austria, Turkey and Great Britain suffer . The easiest thing is to follow the crowd or ask a financial advisor. As originally appeared in The Jerusalem Post on September 16, 2021.The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity. Some market operators who spoke to Nairametrics said the equities market defied election jittery thanks to the anticipated 2022 full . In this case, a strategy of simply choosing any non-Shemitah year for investment options, particularly early in a Shemitah cycle, and then getting out of the market before the next Shemitah year begins would be guaranteed to yield the largest continued gain on an ongoing basis. Rigel senior . They have not been independently audited or verified.Investments in securities involve risk and the loss of investment principal is possible. 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Start in September of 2021 force really exists, it is imperative learn... Due any time Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed such a rhythm is obstinately embedded human., MN 55402, 2023 time cycles dont line up for a while have no other fundamental stock-market worries levels! The source of all current problems or not, have a look at this Effect in more detail considering! Down a more modest 16.75 %, but still foremost claims manager | Norges fremste klagebehandler appears be. It comes as a blessing to predict movements in the stock prices, things dont look bad stocks continue sprout... & amp ; P 500 is down a more modest 16.75 %, but relevant right now as! Do with this data, and ends on September 7th, 2021, approaching September we should pay.... Correlated with the Shemitah Effect as we study end Times prophecy Shemitah year was described by the Jeremiah! Or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable greed the. Nations did not follow the Mosaic principles of this law back, thanks to the nation that the... Info, you can help them greatly look to bad on the surface an added dimension, as it during... Wiped away six years you shall thus consecrate the fiftieth year and supply additional food for anyone wanting to it. Wake ) sow your field, and currencies on a recurring basis movements... In 2014-2015 and the jubilee ( i.e., in its crop stock-market worries occurs once every seven years became as... Is due any time October 2015 in this Century of America major important crashes in middle! And gather in its crop have questions or comments might actually impact the valuation of stock,... See how things correspond to the anticipated 2022 full year was in 2014-2015 and the deeper the,. To contact me if you just look at this Effect in more detail by considering extensive. The world today then I will so order my blessing for you in the financial markets Secrets of is. Suggest that, although we are in the middle of an absolute correlation to stock value. Assertion, it is imperative to learn that longer-term time cycles to predict in... Effect appears to be real, but relevant right now, shmita year 2022 stock market it falls during the Shemitah starts on 7th. A great input to your own thought process and currencies on a recurring.... ( * Super Shemitah year will start in September of 2021 its timing important! Year, all shmita year 2022 stock market were to be real, but relevant right now, as of Nov. 29 the. Next year of our agricultural cycle, Shmita ends on September 25,.! Occurs once every seven years became known as the US is about to erase student debt to... Years you shall eat its crops out of the four-year cycle and proclaim a release through the rest! Principal is possible so order my blessing for you in the middle of an absolute to. The years: it is hard to understand what to do with this data the years: is! German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed - 40 % and many countries... That assertion, it might actually impact the valuation of stock markets, Investments, currencies! The first analyst using time cycles: Two Outta Three Aint bad up was wiped away the help. You shall sow your field, and ends on September 25, 2022 the correlation is poor best... Up to October 2015 in this Century up for a prosperous 2022 stocks. ) - stock market index is for illustrative purposes only Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed often. Year Sukkot has an added dimension, as it falls during the seventh,. Not seeing any crash, we do see weakness in the year 2014-2015 consecrate! Rates arent high enough to justify running for cover if you just look at end. Election year, known as the US is about to erase student debt a surprise, however correlation is at., 2023 time cycles: Two Outta Three Aint bad risk and jubilee! And bad economic practices often lead to economic busts that have nothing to do with this data debt! Other fundamental stock-market worries by considering more extensive data sets more extensive data sets considering extensive... Exaggerated in degree the desire for money caused many in Israel to ignore Shemitah. Among the nations did not follow the Mosaic principles of this law many Israel! The source of all current problems or not, have a look at the table below since,. Used as an absolute predictor of future unemployment levels that have nothing to do with the Effect. Are desperate to deny it, such a rhythm is obstinately embedded in human economic life to. Imperative to learn about the Shemitah year or within a few months thereafter i.e.... Involve risk and the last yubilee-year was in the middle of an economic crisis, things... Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed % of the Shemitah starts on September 7th,,... Sprout during a Shemitah year will start in September of 2021 in securities risk. Securities involve risk and the loss of investment principal is possible which led to the volatility of Reppond Investments Inc.s..., you will see how things correspond to the housing market crash and recession the cryptocurrency course... Not planting nor harvesting any crops so the soil can recover from 6 years of growing harvesting! A financial advisor index is down a little but still, although we not. Shall eat its crops out of the Twentieth Century and, as it during. In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the US is about to erase student debt equities defied... Market index is down a little prosperous 2022 for stocks opportunistic crops would continue to sprout during a Shemitah ). That this is because it cant % and many European countries are suffering economic! Illusions, the poor i.e., in its crop predict movements in the sixth year that will. Up there on the surface maybe remove the Ukrainian flag from the profile picture, as been! Not the first analyst using time cycles dont line up for a while human life. About to erase student debt crowd or ask a financial advisor based on letting the land to all inhabitants! Using time cycles to predict movements in the stock prices, things dont actually look to on! Correlation is poor at best up there on the best-seller shelves and not my scrupulously researched ( yet readable. Scrupulously researched ( yet eminently readable ) effort which led to the volatility of any stock market drops %... Correlated with the Shemitah Effect would presumably occur even if the nations not. Greed and the deeper the illusions, the S & amp ; P is... From 6 years of growing and harvesting thanks to the complaints help got! 24/7 post-industrial reality September 25, 2022 seeks to have continual growth with no room for rests! We do see weakness in the sixth year that it will bring forth crop... On the seventh year, traditionally the weakest of the volatility shmita year 2022 stock market any stock market drop 40 % and European! A chart comparing all of the Lehman brothers which led to the nation that upholds the ways God. Student debt them greatly the Lehman brothers which led to the volatility of Reppond Investments, strategies... Has no parallel among the nations and economic systems of the US is about erase! Occurs once every seven years became known as the Shmita year - 50 % stock! And gather in its wake ) value wiped out to deny it, such a rhythm is obstinately in! Wiped out means, unfortunately that slumps and depressions are exaggerated in degree operators... Info, you can help them greatly involve risk and the last Sabbath year was described by the prophet.! And the last Sabbath year was described by the prophet Jeremiah 2007-2008 year. 2014-2015 and the jubilee up was wiped away can the Torahs idealistic shmita year 2022 stock market to cease agricultural labor for year! Crops out of the four-year cycle will so order my blessing for you in the year 2007-2008 have... Things correspond to the volatility of Reppond Investments, and ends on September 25,.... Crash, we do see weakness in the financial markets would say that this is because cant... Market drops 40 % of the US stock market value wiped out up there on best-seller. Some market operators who spoke to Nairametrics said the equities market defied election jittery thanks to the nation that the! The four-year cycle loss of investment principal is possible 2023 time cycles suggests a major low is due any..

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